25 Hard Facts on Toronto’s Q3 Condo Market

1. There were 323 active projects and 79,941 units by the end of Q3-2011
2. There were 20,964 new condominium apartment sales through Q3-2011 already surpassing last year’s year-end total
3. 6,318 new condo sales in Q3-2011, fourth consecutive quarter in which sales exceeded 5,000 units
4. 27,244 new condo sales over the past 12 months (record year-end is 26,000)
5. 33 new project opened in Q3, sales of which is responsible for 58% of the Q3 sales
6. 34% of the new sales occurred in the 905 region, the highest in the region’s history
7. 50-60% of the new condos are being purchased by investors and they seem to be more long-term micro-landlords than short-term speculators
8. Q2 saw record low 16% of new units remaining unsold, only 17% in Q3
9. Total of 13,259 units remained unsold in Toronto CMA in Q3 which is an increase of 6.8% over Q2
10. On an annual basis, there are two more unsold units in Q3-2011 than there were in Q3-2010 despite the increase in supply
11. There were 5,364 construction starts in Q3-2011. Currently there are 42,537 total units under construction in Toronto CMA
12. Total of 3,630 units were registered in Q3-2011. This brings the annual total to 13,507 new resale units (compared to 13,417 units in 2009)
13. 9,491 resale listings in the Toronto CMA in Q3-2011 is second highest ever
14. Listings-to-units ratio is at 4.4% which is basically the same as the five-year average of 4.3%
15. There is concerns about rapid rise of prices. Index price have risen in Mississauga (10.2%), Markham (8.6%), and the former City of Toronto (9.0%)
16. Sold Index Price however rose to $496/sqft which is an increase of 7.4% annually from $462/sqft in Q3 of last year
17. Annual index price growth is currently below the five year average of 8.1%
18. It is expected that the lower-priced condo projects in the 905 area will bring the overal prices down
19. Q3 saw resale index price growth (7.6%) exceeding new sold index price growth for the first time this year
20. Some experts have called for a condo market price correction of 15%, however, false assumptions of a straight-line apartment household formation rate, and unvarying population growth has brought their results under question
21. Ontario Ministry of Finance has projected that population growth will be greater in the coming years (at 115,000 per year on average to 2,036), than the previous 10 years
22. For Q4, we could see another 33 project and 8,300 units launched
23. About 75% of projects to be launched in Q4 will be in the 416 area
24. If those figures stand, we’ll have a total of 28,000 new units which would top the 22,926 record set in 2007
25. Record year-end 26,000 sales was set in 2007 which will likely be broken

Source: Urbanation